Will there ever be a glaciation again?

 

Some may believe that global warming is something good. Svante Arrhenius thought that next glacial could be moved forward by using fossils. His formula

T2-T1=C*ln(K2/K1)

show that if K2/K1=2 (double rate of carbon dioxide) then the temperature (T) increase with a part called climate sensitivity. Due to IPCC the climate sensitivity is 3,0±1,5 Kelvin.

NASA

From 1970 (325 ppm) to 2020 (410 ppm) the average temperature has increased with about 1 degree. Arrhenius formula then gives

1=C*ln(410/325) implying C=4,305

Which gives climate sensitivity

Tcs=4,305*ln(2/1)=2,98 K

It is known that the incoming solar radiation has caused the glaciations for at least one million years and that the variations is caused by the complicated orbit of Earth around the Sun. Milankovitch could calculate the effects forward and backward in time: 

The black curve above show the solar radiation effect, which has decreased since 5000 years and will continue to decrease for at least 60,000-70,000 years. Its a small dip but would cause a lot of ice in the north and an average temperature several degrees lower than today.

If science had made the decisions instead of the profit, it would have been an idea with some emissions of carbon dioxide increasing the average temperature with one degree in 10,000 years. It would have been a mild impact on climate and nature that would have given us a steady and stable climate for hundreds of thousands of years.

What would have happened a few hundred thousand years from now when maximum solar radiation was expected is unclear.

What we could have experimented with, an increase of one degree in ten thousand years, we have now burned off in 50 years. And still more fossils are used each year than the year before, which means a continued rise in temperature by about 0.2 degrees per decade.